July 25, 2025 Technical Analysis - ADBE Stock - Buy, Sell or Hold?

1. MACD (Daily Chart)

  • Current Status:

    • MACD line at -2.15, Signal line at -1.80 (Bearish crossover)

    • Histogram shows expanding bearish momentum

  • Key Observation:

    • Needs to cross above signal line to suggest trend reversal

  • Implication: Current downtrend remains intact

2. RSI (14-Day)

  • Current Reading: 41.50 (Neutral but leaning bearish)

  • Recent Behavior:

    • Failed to reach 60 in last rally (shows weakness)

    • Not yet oversold (room for more downside)

  • Critical Level: Break above 50 needed for bullish momentum

3. Elliott Wave Count

  • Likely Scenario:

    • Completing Wave C of corrective ABC pattern

    • Potential downside target: $480-$490 zone

  • Bullish Case:

    • Wave C completion could setup new impulse wave

  • Invalidation: Break above $550 needed for bullish confirmation

4. Candlestick Patterns

  • Recent Formations:

    • Multiple bearish engulfing patterns

    • Lack of strong reversal signals

  • Volume Analysis:

    • Down days coming on higher volume (bearish)

5. Stochastic Oscillator

  • Current Position:

    • %K: 32, %D: 38 (Bearish crossover)

    • Approaching oversold territory (<20)

  • Potential: Oversold bounce possible if %K reverses upward

6. Fibonacci Levels (From $634 to $490)

  • Key Retracements:

    • 38.2%: $540 (Strong resistance)

    • 50%: $515 (Recent resistance)

    • 61.8%: $490 (Major support)

  • Price Action:

    • Currently testing 61.8% level

    • Holding above $490 critical for bulls

7. Parabolic SAR (Daily)

  • Current Trend:

    • Dots above price since early June (Bearish)

    • Last flip to bearish at $530

  • Implication: Downtrend remains until dots flip below price

8. Moving Averages

  • Key Levels:

    • 50-Day MA: $525 (Declining)

    • 200-Day MA: $560 (Major resistance)

    • Death Cross formed in June (50 below 200)

  • Price Position:

    • Trading below all key MAs = Bearish structure

9. Volume Profile

  • Notable Levels:

    • High volume node at $500 (Support)

    • Volume vacuum between $510-$520

  • Recent Flow:

    • Distribution patterns visible

10. Options Market

  • Open Interest:

    • Heavy put open interest at $500

    • Call resistance at $520

  • Skew:

    • Put/Call ratio elevated (bearish sentiment)

Critical Price Levels

LevelImportance
$490-$500Strong Support
$515-$520Resistance
$540Major Resistance
$560200-DMA

Trading Recommendations

Short-Term (1-4 Weeks):

  • Bearish Scenario: Sell rallies to $515, target $490

  • Bullish Reversal: Only above $520 with volume

Medium-Term (Q3 2024):

  • Base case: Rangebound ($490-$520) until earnings

  • Breakdown risk below $490

Long-Term Investors:

  • Wait for basing pattern to complete

  • Better entry likely in $450-$480 range

Sector Context

  • Relative Strength: Underperforming software peers

  • Valuation: 30x forward P/E (still premium)

  • Catalyst Watch:

    • AI product monetization

    • September MAX conference

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