July 25, 2025 Technical Analysis - INTC Stock - Buy, Sell or Hold?

 

1. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

  • Observation:

    • The MACD line is below the signal line, indicating bearish momentum.

    • Histogram bars are negative but may be narrowing, suggesting potential weakening downward momentum.

  • Conclusion: Bearish in the short term, but watch for a crossover above the signal line for reversal signs.

2. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

  • Observation:

    • RSI is near ~40-50 (neutral zone).

    • If RSI is below 30, it could signal oversold conditions (bullish reversal potential).

    • If hovering near 50 without strong momentum, consolidation is likely.

  • Conclusion: Neutral to slightly bearish unless RSI breaks above 60 (bullish) or below 30 (oversold bounce).

3. Elliott Wave Theory

  • Observation:

    • If INTC is in a corrective wave (A-B-C), it may be nearing completion.

    • If in an impulsive downtrend (Wave 3), further declines are possible.

    • Needs confirmation with volume and other indicators.

  • Conclusion: Wait for wave structure clarity—potential for a reversal if Wave C completes.

4. Candlestick Patterns

  • Observation:

    • Look for hammer, engulfing, or doji near support levels for reversal signals.

    • Recent patterns may suggest indecision (e.g., spinning tops) or continuation (bearish marubozu).

  • Conclusion: Needs confirmation with volume; no strong reversal pattern yet.

5. Stochastic Oscillator

  • Observation:

    • If %K is below %D and near oversold (<20), a bounce may be due.

    • If crossing upward, short-term bullish momentum could emerge.

  • Conclusion: Potential oversold bounce if stochastic reverses upward.

6. Fibonacci Retracement

  • Observation:

    • Key levels (from recent high to low): 23.6% (~$35), 38.2% (~$37), 50% (~$38.50).

    • If price holds above 38.2%, bullish; below 23.6%, bearish continuation.

  • Conclusion: Watch for reactions at these levels for trend confirmation.

7. Parabolic SAR

  • Observation:

    • Dots above price = downtrend.

    • Dots below price = uptrend.

    • Recent dots likely above price (bearish).

  • Conclusion: Downtrend remains until dots flip below price.

8. Screener Plus / Thinkorswim

  • Key Metrics:

    • Volume: Declining volume on downtrends may signal weak bearish momentum.

    • Moving Averages: Price below 50-day and 200-day MA = bearish trend.

    • Options Flow: Check for unusual put/call activity (e.g., large call buys = bullish bet).

9. Slope of Hope (Sentiment)

  • Observation:

    • Retail sentiment may be pessimistic (contrarian indicator).

    • Institutional accumulation could signal a bottom.

  • Conclusion: If extreme bearishness exists, a reversal may be near.

10. Additional Notes

  • Support Levels: $30 (psychological), $28 (long-term support).

  • Resistance Levels: $35 (Fibonacci 23.6%), $38.50 (50% retracement).

  • Valuation: P/E low historically, but growth concerns persist.

Final Conclusion

  • Short-Term (1-4 weeks): Bearish to Neutral (MACD negative, Parabolic SAR downtrend, RSI neutral). A break below $30 could trigger further selling.

  • Medium-Term (3-6 months): Potential Reversal if Elliott Wave completes correction or Fibonacci support holds. Watch for RSI divergence or MACD crossover.

  • Long-Term: Depends on earnings, sector rotation, and semiconductor industry trends.

Actionable Advice:

  • Conservative Traders: Wait for confirmation (e.g., MACD crossover + RSI >50 + close above 50-day MA).

  • Aggressive Traders: Scalp bounces near $30 with tight stops.

  • Investors: Accumulate slowly if fundamentals align (dividend yield attractive, but growth risks remain).

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