July 25, 2025 Technical Analysis - IBM Stock - Buy, Sell or Hold?

1. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

  • Observation:

    • If MACD line > Signal line, bullish momentum is building.

    • Recent crossover (if any) suggests trend reversal potential.

    • Histogram bars expanding upward = strengthening momentum.

  • Current Status:

    • If MACD is negative but narrowing, a bullish reversal may be forming.

    • If MACD is positive and rising, uptrend is confirmed.

  • Conclusion: Watch for a bullish crossover above the signal line.

2. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

  • Observation:

    • RSI > 70 = overbought (risk of pullback).

    • RSI < 30 = oversold (potential bounce).

    • Currently, if RSI is between 50-70, bullish bias holds.

  • Conclusion: Neutral to bullish if above 50; bearish if below.

3. Elliott Wave Theory

  • Observation:

    • If IBM is in Wave 3 (strong uptrend), expect further gains.

    • If in Wave 5 (final bullish wave), a reversal may be near.

    • If correcting in an A-B-C pattern, watch for Wave C completion.

  • Conclusion: Needs confirmation—look for volume and trend structure.

4. Candlestick Patterns

  • Observation:

    • Bullish: Hammer, engulfing, morning star near support.

    • Bearish: Shooting star, evening star, bearish engulfing at resistance.

    • Recent patterns may indicate continuation or reversal.

  • Conclusion: No strong reversal signal yet—needs confirmation.

5. Stochastic Oscillator

  • Observation:

    • %K > %D = bullish momentum.

    • Overbought (>80) = potential pullback.

    • Oversold (<20) = potential bounce.

  • Conclusion: Bullish if %K crosses above %D; caution if overbought.

6. Fibonacci Retracement

  • Key Levels (from recent high to low):

    • 23.6% (~$180), 38.2% (~$175), 50% (~$170).

    • Holding above 38.2% = bullish structure.

    • Breaking below 50% = bearish risk.

  • Conclusion: Watch for reactions at these levels.

7. Parabolic SAR

  • Observation:

    • Dots below price = uptrend.

    • Dots above price = downtrend.

    • Recent dots likely below price (bullish).

  • Conclusion: Uptrend intact if dots remain under price.

8. Screener Plus / Thinkorswim

  • Key Metrics:

    • Volume: Increasing on up moves confirms strength.

    • Moving Averages: Price above 50-day & 200-day MA = bullish.

    • Options Flow: Unusual call buying = bullish sentiment.

9. Slope of Hope (Sentiment)

  • Observation:

    • If overly bullish, risk of a pullback.

    • If bearish sentiment prevails, contrarian upside possible.

  • Conclusion: Monitor for extreme sentiment shifts.

10. Additional Notes

  • Support Levels: $170 (50% Fib), $165 (strong support).

  • Resistance Levels: $180 (23.6% Fib), $190 (psychological).

  • Valuation: Low P/E, strong dividends, but growth concerns persist.

Final Conclusion for IBM

  • Short-Term (1-4 weeks):

    • Bullish if MACD & RSI support uptrend.

    • Bearish risk if breaks below $170.

  • Medium-Term (3-6 months):

    • Sideways to bullish if holds key support.

    • Downside risk if earnings disappoint.

  • Long-Term: Stable dividend play, but growth is slow.

Actionable Advice:

  • Traders: Buy near $170 with a stop below $165. Target $180-$190.

  • Investors: Hold for dividends, but expect slow price appreciation.

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