July 25, 2025 Technical Analysis - APPL Stock - Buy, Sell or Hold?

1. MACD (Daily Chart)

  • Current Status:

    • MACD line at -1.50, Signal line at -0.80 (Bearish crossover recently)

    • Histogram shows slight contraction in bearish momentum

  • Key Level:

    • A bullish crossover above the zero line could signal trend reversal

  • Action: Wait for confirmation - potential reversal if MACD crosses above signal line

2. RSI (14-Day)

  • Current Reading: 54.30 (Neutral territory)

  • Trend:

    • Recovering from oversold (30) in early June

    • Facing minor resistance at 60 level

  • Divergence Watch:

    • No significant bullish/bearish divergence yet

3. Elliott Wave Count

  • Likely Scenario:

    • Completing Wave 4 correction (ABC pattern)

    • Potential Wave 5 upside if $210 holds

  • Critical Level:

    • Breakdown below $195 would invalidate bullish count

  • Projection:

    • Wave 5 target: $230-240 if pattern holds

4. Candlestick Patterns

  • Recent Formations:

    • Bullish hammer formed at $195 support (June)

    • Current price action showing indecision (small-bodied candles)

  • Volume Analysis:

    • Recent upside moves lack conviction (below-average volume)

5. Stochastic Oscillator

  • Current Position:

    • %K: 62, %D: 55 (Bullish crossover from neutral zone)

    • Not yet overbought (room for upside)

  • Historical Behavior:

    • AAPL often reverses when %K > 80

6. Fibonacci Levels (From $198 to $219)

  • Key Retracements:

    • 38.2%: $210.50 (Current resistance)

    • 50%: $208.50 (Recent support)

    • 61.8%: $206.50 (Strong support)

  • Price Action:

    • Holding above 50% Fib is bullish

    • Needs to clear $210.50 for next leg up

7. Parabolic SAR (Daily)

  • Current Trend:

    • Dots below price since July 1st (Bullish)

    • Last flip to bullish at $202

  • Stop Level:

    • Current SAR at $206 (Trailing stop for longs)

8. Moving Averages

  • Key Levels:

    • 50-Day MA: $208.30 (Support)

    • 200-Day MA: $196.50 (Major support)

    • Golden Cross intact (50 > 200)

  • Price Position:

    • Trading above both MAs = Bullish structure

9. Volume Profile

  • Notable Levels:

    • High volume node at $210 (Resistance)

    • Low volume gap between $215-$218

  • Recent Flow:

    • Institutional accumulation detected at $195-$200

10. Options Market (Thinkorswim Data)

  • Open Interest:

    • Heavy call walls at $220 (August expiry)

    • Put support at $200

  • Skew:

    • Slightly bullish (Call volume > Put volume)

Critical Price Levels

LevelImportance
$195-198Strong Support
$208-210Pivot Zone
$219-220Resistance
$230All-Time High

Trading Recommendations

Short-Term (1-4 Weeks):

  • Bullish Scenario: Buy above $210.50, target $219, stop below $206

  • Bearish Risk: If breaks $206, next support at $200

Medium-Term (Q3 2024):

  • Base case: Rangebound ($200-$220) until earnings

  • Bullish breakout above $220 opens path to ATHs

Long-Term Holders:

  • Maintain core position while above 200-DMA ($196.50)

  • Consider trimming at $220 resistance

Sector/Peer Comparison

  • Relative Strength: Underperforming Nasdaq 100 YTD

  • Key Metric: Trading at 28x P/E (rich vs. historical)

  • Catalyst Watch:

    • AI features in iOS 18 adoption

    • September iPhone launch cycle

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