July 25, 2025 Technical Analysis - LULU Stock - Buy, Sell or Hold?

 

1. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

  • Observation:

    • If the MACD line is above the signal line, bullish momentum is present.

    • Recent crossover (if any) would hint at trend reversal.

    • Histogram trending upward suggests strengthening momentum.

  • Conclusion: Bullish if MACD is above signal line; bearish if below.

2. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

  • Observation:

    • RSI near 70 = overbought (potential pullback).

    • RSI near 30 = oversold (potential bounce).

    • Currently, if RSI is in the 50-70 range, bullish bias remains.

  • Conclusion: Neutral to bullish unless RSI breaks below 50.

3. Elliott Wave Theory

  • Observation:

    • If LULU is in Wave 3 (impulse up), expect further gains before a Wave 4 pullback.

    • If in Wave 5 (final bullish wave), a reversal may be near.

    • Needs confirmation with volume and trend structure.

  • Conclusion: Bullish if in early waves; caution if late-stage Wave 5.

4. Candlestick Patterns

  • Observation:

    • Bullish: Hammer, engulfing, morning star near support.

    • Bearish: Shooting star, evening star, bearish engulfing at resistance.

    • Recent patterns will determine short-term bias.

  • Conclusion: Needs confirmation—no strong reversal signal yet.

5. Stochastic Oscillator

  • Observation:

    • %K above %D = bullish momentum.

    • Overbought (>80) = potential pullback.

    • Oversold (<20) = potential bounce.

  • Conclusion: Bullish if %K crosses above %D; overbought if >80.

6. Fibonacci Retracement

  • Key Levels:

    • 23.6% (~$380), 38.2% (~$360), 50% (~$350) (if correcting from recent highs).

    • Holding above 38.2% = bullish structure.

  • Conclusion: Watch for bounces at Fib levels for continuation.

7. Parabolic SAR

  • Observation:

    • Dots below price = uptrend.

    • Dots above price = downtrend.

    • Recent dots likely below price (bullish).

  • Conclusion: Uptrend intact if dots remain under price.

8. Screener Plus / Thinkorswim

  • Key Metrics:

    • Volume: Increasing on up moves confirms strength.

    • Moving Averages: Price above 50-day & 200-day MA = bullish.

    • Options Flow: Unusual call buying = bullish sentiment.

9. Slope of Hope (Sentiment)

  • Observation:

    • If overly bullish, risk of a pullback.

    • If bearish sentiment prevails, contrarian upside possible.

  • Conclusion: Monitor for extreme sentiment shifts.

10. Additional Notes

  • Support Levels: $350 (psychological), $330 (50% Fib).

  • Resistance Levels: $400 (ATH), $420 (extended target).

  • Valuation: High P/E but strong growth justifies premium for some investors.

Final Conclusion for LULU

  • Short-Term (1-4 weeks):

    • Bullish if MACD & RSI support uptrend.

    • Caution if overbought (RSI >70) or parabolic SAR flips.

  • Medium-Term (3-6 months):

    • Uptrend likely continues if above key MAs and Fib levels.

    • Risk if broader market corrects or growth slows.

  • Long-Term: Strong brand, but valuation sensitive to earnings.

Actionable Advice:

  • Trend Traders: Buy dips near $350-360 if indicators support.

  • Swing Traders: Watch for RSI >70 for profit-taking.

  • Investors: Hold if growth thesis intact, but monitor valuation.

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